As expected, E$ squeezed higher to the resistance band, flushing out stops and printed 1.3212 high overnight before falling back to consolidate around 1.318ish.
Something has changed the dynamics of the market yesterday. AUDUSD has broken out of the bearish channel and upward momentum has picked up significantly. If we scanned across the other currency pairs, its starting to reveal that the recent USD rally may have potentially been crippled. So for the USD bulls out there, be tame!
If the above is panning out, it only means the EURxxx are going to stay under pressure (remember E$ is the new USD?) especially the EURAUD.
As for the E$, as long as it stays below the resistance band 1.3200/30, we should still be range trading with baseline at 1.3030 for now. Unlike AUDUSD, E$ has not yet broken any critical level to invalidate its short term bearish view but one has to be aware of the bigger picture ie. USD may start weakening again. I will put the intermediate target of 1.27/2800 on hold for now since probability has skewed which exposes E$ to potentially expand its range with top boundary stretching to 1.3300/50.
I hate this but have to admit that there are conflicting signals, therefore I will lightweight E$ and seek more directional plays in AUDUSD and EURAUD. Will update when I get into the groove of things.
1.3120/30 to hold (1.3030/50 news induced) and 1.3200/30 to cap (a close above 1.3230 will invalidate short term bearish view)
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