Just take note that today is the last day of August and month end flows can disrupt the regular rhythm of the market.
Quite a good spread of data to keep the market engaged (All in Sin/HK time)
1400hrs German Retail Sales
1600hrs Italian Employment data
1700hrs Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate + Unemployment rate
2030hrs US Core PCE Price Index
2145hrs Chicago PMI
2155hrs Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
CFTC COT report: Speculator's accounts
31 Jul 6 Aug 13 Aug 20 Aug
EUR - 8,504 + 6,061 +16,057 +36,746
AUD -72,573 -76,779 -62,721 -63,183
JPY -82,135 -80,213 -74,462 -71,721
Not surprised by the turnaround in E$ when spec accounts have such a directional bias.
NY order book:
Stop loss: 1.3185/80, 1.3205/00, 1.3300, 1.3345/55 and 1.3395/405
Limit: 1.3185/80, 1.3205/00 and 1.3395/405
Primary trend: Bullish
Intermediate trend: Bearish
Minor trend: Consolidation with upside bias
Technically, the downside easy money is probably over for now. Shorter intraday indicator is getting close to o/b but longer intraday is at o/s levels. Shorter intraday momentum is starting to indicate waning downside momentum whereas the longer ones are still pointing lower. Taking other technical readings into consideration, the most likely outcome: a potential test at yesterday's low of 1.3219 but 1.3180/90 should hold for rebound.
Based on current development, E$'s 1/2 weeks technical picture remains bearish for 1.3100 but for today, one should not get overly bearish when closer to 1.3200.
With this scenario, one can attempt a speculative buy dip with tight stop below 1.3150 on first test (before 1.3300 is seen). Sell rally can probably be held back till next week.
|E$ Monthly chart - 2 possible Intermediate trend|