TGIF folks, I will be off for my son's school charity golf event today and hopefully make it back for Bernanke's speech at 10pm (Sin/HK) tonight.
Another day of tight range trading 1.2487-1.2564, where all it was interested in was stop loss orders seeking from down from 1.2520 through 1.2490.
From yesterday's order book, based on the recent range, there isn't any stop loss orders left. This speaks volume as most would have already stayed by the sideline.
Technically, as one would have expected, the intraday indicators are all consistently showing neutral signals and consolidation. Firstly, I have determined that the weekly trend is up (but not necessarily be this week though) but in order for a healthy move higher, a correction lower to form a base to spring board the next wave would be ideal. Taking the full moon effect into consideration, what would have been the most brutal move in order to weed out everyone before it moves higher? I have a couple of scenario here:
1. An initial rally to break recent high of 1.2589 and retest upper trend line around 1.2640/50 before falling back to retest lower trend line at 1.2410/20 and then close around the lower band.
2. Fall straight for lower trend line and then rally to break 1.2589 for upper trend line.
Liquidity will be sub-optimal, its full moon and month end. Therefore, I was just thinking of the extreme as you would have noticed the ranges I mentioned would probably be more than a single trading day's. My advise is not to be caught dead in the mid-range but position on both extremes, though I would have preferred to buy dips if I were to be positioning for a more structural play. By the way, there is another stronger support near the lower trend line at 1.2360/70.
|E$ 8hourly chart - Bullish channel|