Currently, general sentiment remains negative for the E$ as market braces itself for potential bank runs in Cyprus, which in turn poses a systemic risk to the other peripherals.
As market will be watching for development out of Cyprus and Europe later, do be aware of the potentially higher volatility and news driven price action amid a not so liquid condition ahead of the month/quarter end and Easter holiday. If everything is under control as opposed to how market has positioned itself, we can see E$ shortcover.
Primary trend: Bullish
Intermediary trend: Bearish for 1.2650/80 (price back inside bearish channel and staying below DMA200)
Minor trend: Bearish (Spillover momentum but watch out for sharp rebound when close to 1.2650/80)
CFTC COT non-commercial speculator account revealed that market has increased their net short euro positions to -44,880 vs -24,787. However, net short jpy positions were reduced to -79,993 vs -93,763.
Asian order book:
Stop loss: 1.2750, 1.2890/910, 1.2920 and 1.2930/50
Technically, shorter intraday indicator has turn up but the longer ones are still in or near o/s levels. Though intraday oscillators remain mixed, one must respect the relatively bearish candlestick on Wednesday which should have sufficient spillover momentum to pressure E$ lower. Expected range 1.2820/30 to 1.2700 (expanded 1.2650/80). A break of 1.2867 would alleviate some bearish pressure off E$. If you must trade, stay very nimble and don't forget your trailing stops.
|E$ Daily chart - Staying under DMA21(Red), 50(Green), 100(Brown) & 200(Blue)|
Reason for absence: Was bedridden for 5 days fighting high fever fluctuating between 38.5 to 40.1 (minor support at 39) degree celsius. Trust me, I tried plotting for patterns. The 40.1 was really the 5th wave!!