In less than 24 hours (Sin), market will close the month of Jun, Q2 and H1 of 2012. Where we close can tell a story for the next half of the year, so it can be crucial.
Fundamentals..... EU Summit started with a managed expectation that nothing substantial will come out of this meeting and that sent the E$ reeling to the low of 1.2407.
What can be worse now? Clearly E$ has built in quite abit of negatives and still standing at 1.243ish. It may take another blow down to 1.238ish but anything else is surprise on the upside. Latest in the market was that Merkel is starting to warm up to the idea of the the Eurobond.... could this be the trigger? Let's watch.....
On the stop loss orders, this is not the latest information but here are where they reside from yesterday's session: 1.2550, 1.2400, 1.2390 and 1.2350.
Technically.... its really been a mixed bag based on just E$ alone and I need to seek help by looking at the EURxxx and precious metals once again. On E$ itself, momentum on the short to longer term is mixed but with a slight skew towards consolidation to up. Longer term indicator showing o/s but not at extreme yet and signs of mild bullish divergence. EURxxx however are consistent in that there is stronger bullish divergence signal across the main crosses. With that, the probability of E$ nearing a short term bottom is higher. A close today above the price line (see chart) will be E$ supportive for the days ahead. However, important to note that a rally in EURxxx is a risk off bet and more likely commodity related will now be the victim of bashing or it has already started..... (in a risk off environment, E$ will then slip into the USD mode).
Having weighed all the knowns, I maintain my buy dip strategy... 1.2380/400 to hold (1.2340/50 news induced) and 1.2550 to cap for now.
|E$ Daily chart|