Wednesday, 29 February 2012

The Day of Reckoning....

Good morning folks. 

While the currency market took a break yesterday, XAGUSD had the best day out this year to surge ahead to lead the pack.

One thing is clear for sure, USD has already started to trend lower again except against the JPY (always a different animal, have you not noticed by now, hello??)

Price action in the E$ in the past 48hrs suggest strong underlying strength as every dip was brief and rebound sharp. 

Despite stop loss orders built up below 1.3360, that region was not threatened.

Expect the range to tighten to 1.3400-1.3480 during Asian hours, 1.3340/60 news induced. The breakout may not happen but one has to start long positioning today. A monthly close above 1.3400 would be a bullish signal.

Risk/Reward (R/R) favours buying dips as I foresee 1.35/36 tested by this week.

Noteworthy events:
  • YPO's Global CEO Summit starts today in Singapore!! (Irrelevant)
  • Fed Chief Bernanke speaks
  • Beige book
  • Month end close

Enjoy today, it takes 4yrs to get this day on the calendar!

"Trend is your friend, emotion is your foe"

"Greed is good, discipline is better"

Tuesday, 28 February 2012

The Day After.....

Is the E$ bull run over yet?

No, I personally don't think so (Wednesday's monthly close will be crucial) but the easy money part is probably over for now. The price action towards 1.33663 low was corrective and the support level at 1.3360 held overnight. As a matter of fact, yesterday's correction was actually more constructive for the next leg up. 1.35/36 handle remains formidable.

For today, market should shift gear into consolidation mode within 1.3360-1.3440 through the Asian hrs. Since signals are mixed, I shall not bother myself to force a view. Sit back, relax....... Scalping is the strategy for the day.

Everything comes to him who waits

Monday, 27 February 2012

Trials & Tribulations.....

Never be stubborn for the market will never be wrong. 

Its amazing how I can repeat certain stupid mistake in trading despite having my Trading Rules pasted right above my monitor screen!!

This time, I was so fixated (with complacency) with my target price that I failed to see the danger signs staring right before my very eyes which on other days would have been perfect sell signals. Though I had a good run on the EUR rally despite giving back about 50pips, I was not totally satisfied with myself for forgetting one of the cardinal rules of trading..... Ask not what you want from the market but what the market can give to you.

Still human, I guess. These 2 traits will live in all of us forever.... Greed and Fear. I just need constant reminders to check myself.

For now, I just want a quiet peaceful evening to clear my mind, watch alittle TV, play with my son and get ready for tomorrow. 

"Seek opportunities for opportunity only comes knocking on your door once"

"Spend eighty percent of your time focusing on the opportunities of tomorrow rather than the problems of yesterday"
Brian Tracy

The Relentless Pursuit

Good morning folks. 

Shower of blessings to start the week! 

A very disciplined market open during the NZ hours despite EUR positive news from G20 over the weekend. 

A few noteworthy events to note which can effect the timing of market moves this week:
  • Month end closing 
  • Fed Chairman Bernanke testifies
  • Beige Book 
Coincidentally, it will all happen on Wednesday.

For today, I continue to see a relatively shallow consolidation during the Asian timezone. No signs of weakening in the momentum despite overbought condition.  
E$ should continue to nudge higher into the 1.35/36 band before any more elaborate correction.

Added to my long E$ last Friday and status quo on the long EURCAD positions. However, I will be looking to scale out this week.

1.3430 to hold, 1.3360/70 news induced.

What do you think? Looking forward to your comment (tho I may not answer everything you ask!)

Follow me on Twitter @tangjas and have a great week!

Friday, 24 February 2012

The Breakout and Breakaway.....

Good morning folks, TGIF! 

What a way to start my Friday. Awoken at 4ish this morning to be greeted by a nice rally in the EUR. Stayed up and check my charts, chatted on FB with an ex-colleague who is in Ldn and tried to sleep at 5ish. Woke up again at 6.19 and realized that my helper had overslept. Rushed to wake her up and helped my son get ready. He had to miss his school bus and I drove him to school. Nice change but don't make it a routine! Dropped him off and took a slow drive (I don't road hog!) to Tiong Bahru market to buy Chui Kuey and beancurd for breakfast.... Yummy!

Back to the FX market......

I was invited to the Euromoney Conference on Wednesday in Singapore by my buddy but could only make it to attend the discussion on "Macro Challenges and Opportunities in 2012". With due respect, I was not very impressed by the panel. But one good takeaway from their discussion was........ everyone was bearish the EUR!!!  

The breakout after hours of consolidation in the E$ has materialized and indeed Thursday was the shopping day. I am long the E$ and EURCAD for now. 
I feel we are in a very different phase of the market.... a phase where negative and positive carry trades are rallying. So is it risk off or on or does it matter at all?

If my count is correct, E$ correction should be shallow and 1.3400 to be tested today with 1.35/36 in sight over till next week. 1.3280-1.3300 should hold for today. 1.3200 news induced.

Be very greedy when others are pessimistic, be greedy when others are skeptical, be skeptical when others are optimistic and be darn fearful when others are euphoric!!
Warren/Templeton fusion

Dare to be different but not for the sake of being different
Jason Tang (yet to be famous)

Thursday, 23 February 2012

Its my turn, said EUR

EUR may be in for a multi-week bull run outperforming against most majors. The latest Greece rescue package has probably triggered this short term reversal and its time for EUR to do some catching up in a bigger way.
For today, E$ stops have accumulated around 1.3180/1.3280/1.3330 and I like the EURUSD lower first to before grinding higher, only to pick up momentum into next week.

I am bullish EURUSD. Target 1.3400-1.3800. Will not discount 1.4200. 
Other scenarios:
a) 1.2700 first then reversal (lowest probability)
b) 1.3020 first then reversal (needs some really shocking news)

Just my view :)

What do you think?

Wednesday, 22 February 2012

Calm before storm

Something's fishy overnight.... XAU & XAG rallied but AUD, NZD & GBP got sold off. EUR crosses rallied too. So is it risk off and physical commodities were bought up as safe haven (for now)? Reckon if carry trades get dumped > margin call > sell precious metals to meet margin call cycle will start all over again. Be careful with risky assets!

Twitter  @tangjas