E$ tumbled on Fed's minutes and QE3 was the culprit again..... likewise, I don't know about you, I am quite tired of this lame excuse to move the market.
Based on the weak close in E$, we should expect lots of selling momentum to follow through with the bears banging on these 2 supporting fundamentals ie. the Fed's minutes and Spain's woes. However, if the support at 1.3200/10 holds, a short squeeze can be expected today albeit after hours of bull/bear struggle around the 1.3210 to 1.3250 band.
For today, 1.3200/10 remains crucial, failing to hold will leave E$ vulnerable to 1.3150 before bounce. On the upside, many layers of minor resistance up to 1.3250 for E$ to contend with and stronger resistance is at 1.3280/90. A close back above 1.3300 today will be a bullish signal for 1.3380/90 to be retested.
Market liquidity is sub-optimal today and market move can be choppy as a result. Stay nimble!
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| E$ 2-Hourly Chart |
Update1: Would strengthen bullish picture if E$ can hold above 1.3235/40 for the next 3 hours.
Update2: E$ bulls, don't be too anxious to jump in first. Momentum is still pointing down and there is no signs of reversal just yet. From the past 24 hours price action, E$ does look heavy and has increased the probability of retesting previous low 1.3003 (head and shoulders neckline at 1.3010/20. E$ needs to close above 1.3300 to invalidate the bearish technical picture. No positions for now, awaiting stronger signals either way before trade.
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