Bull within bear.....

Good morning folks!!

Had a great field day?

Fundamentals.... Merkel fell victim to intentional misinterpretation of her comment as market searched for any excuse to gain momentum to sell the E$ for stops. It seems like E$ is happy to head into the EU Summit this Thursday with the mindset that nothing substantial will come out of this meeting.... that is doubting the EU leaders' resolve from past experience? But this will put E$ in very vulnerable position to sharp short squeezes if any positive news were to come out of it.....

For the past 2 days, stop loss orders were skewed to mainly sell stops only. However, information received this morning revealed a relatively more balanced picture.
They are lurking at 1.2600, 1.2550, 1.2442/35/30, 1.2425 and 1.2410.

Technically, it has become more of a mixed bag of information. Shorter term momentum has turned to consolidation to up, whereas the longer term is still pointing lower. Longer term indicators is showing E$ in o/s territory but not extreme at all. Shorter term tech is showing mild bullish divergence.
Lastly, E$ has traded to familiar territory (see chart). I have drawn a line to show that the recent days, market has somehow muscle its way to consistently close E$ above 1.2480 as shown by the shadows of the candlesticks (as circled).

Having analysed the above and also taken into consideration that Friday will mark the last trading day for the month of June, here's my prognosis.....

While I maintain my bearish weekly view, I am mentally prepared for a potential short squeeze ahead of the EU Summit as some readings from the technical indicators have increased the probability of a mini bull within the bigger bear. On wide, I see 1.2340/50 to 1.2560-600 by Friday. I prefer to sell into rallies for positioning and guerilla scalping on the long side. In other words, if I am long E$, I will be desk bound but if I held a short position at strategic level, I can be found at the driving range :)
For today, 1.2450 to hold (1.2400 news induced) and 1.2550/60 to cap.

E$ Daily chart

All the best!!