A pretty well behaved market throughout the whole session with an upside bias as expected. Clearly, the strong offer at 1.2445 has managed to thwart E$'s attempt at the option barrier and stop loss orders at 1.2450 for now and that encouraged E$ to turn south to seek the path of least resistance. However, market was again faced with decent bids ahead of 1.2400 as this market player was defending an option just prior to expiry.
Stop loss orders are very light on both ends with only 1.2450 and 1.2370 highlighted.
Technically, intraday indicators have slipped into o/s levels and coupled with signs of mild bullish divergence, it has increased the probability of a near term bottom and rebound. As a result of the consolidation within a tight range, longer term intraday momentum is starting to turn from a mildly bullish tone to consolidation. On a daily basis, E$'s inability to close above the MA50 also indicate relative weakness. Closing 'doji' would warn of potential volatility. To summarize, probability has increased for E$ to correct lower today but bearing in mind that I am on a weekly basis, still bullish. Therefore, I maintain my strategy to scalp on short again and position for long.
For today, 1.2410/20 provide first resistance with stronger at 1.2460/80 and support at 1.2320/30 and stronger at 1.2260/80.
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| E$ Fibonacci Retracement levels |
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