Market will remain listless till it gets direction from the US fiscal cliff talk probably starting today as President Obama cut short his holiday in Hawaii to rush back on Wednesday, indicated the urgency.
As expected, E$ stayed within the range during the past 2 days as forecast in my last blog "Bears to pull the sleigh for now" and I am not expecting it to deviate from 1.3150/60 to 1.3250/60 for now until new fundamental input.
Trend remains up for E$, supported by EURJPY, but at current price level at this moment, after the recent rally, makes it susceptible to negative news. A short term correction if it materializes, can go as deep as 1.2940/50.
For today, short term intraday indicator is close to o/b level and that supports the range trade view. However, with price holding near the higher band of range over the past 24hrs, intraday momentum has gradually shifted from consolidation to slight upside bias.
For today, I do not encourage position taking as market has switched to more of a fundamentally driven market. Liquidity is sub-optimal and that makes it even more unreliable for technical analysis. Probability has dropped to 50/50, however, it is still better than casino probability because house always has average edge of 1+% over player.
 |
| E$ Daily chart |
Now that my target of Y85 has been reached (read blogs dated 23/26 Nov 12), let's update the forecast for the next phase.
From the monthly chart, one can "feel" the possibility of a reversal in major trend for the $JPY. After spending 3 years (from 2009 to 2011) of probing lower amid fading momentum, the market finally rebound after hitting a low of Y75.30 on the 31 Oct 2011, before BOJ's massive intervention. These past 2 months's price action supported by firm momentum has clearly turned things around quite a bit. Though daily and weekly indicators are in extreme o/b levels, one has to be aware that in a major trend reversal, indicators can get "stucked" as price continues to punch higher. Based on time and price, $JPY remains susceptible to negative news at current levels. Y83.80/84.00 provides good support for now with next target at Y89/90 in the coming months.
 |
| $JPY Month chart - |
No comments:
Post a Comment