Thursday 24 January 2013

Too yummy to pass.... (Update1)

Good Thursday morning friends!!! Its fantastic to wake up in the morning and be able to see the world, something that we all have taken for granted. There is this sense of relief after the doctor confirmed that my eyes are still in great condition despite suffering 3 separate occasions in a month where the capillaries burst in my right eye and the double images that have been bugging me for the past 1 week. Sounds like more trading and golfing days ahead!  :)

Another day passed and E$'s range tapers further and a breakout becomes even more imminent. Resistance today stand at 1.3330, 1.3350/60 and 1.3380/90 and support at 1.3260/50, 1.3230 and 1.3200. I am still looking to sell into rally and take profit, at different levels. The large stop loss below 1.3240 is probably too yummy for market to ignore at this point.
Having said that, I can't get overly bearish the E$ below 1.3200 for now. Somehow, I feel E$ is not ready to turn lower before giving 1.34ish another test.

I have not received the update on the Asian order book yet but these orders from last night's NY session should be quite consistent:
Stop loss: 1.3240, 1.3260/50, 1.3270, 1.3365 and 1.3405/10 (Updated)
Limit: 1.3260/50 and 1.3395/405
E$ Daily chart - DMA21 at 1.3233
USDJPY
Watching closely to take profit on my long USDJPY now. Just a quick reminder before a more elaborate update later. USDJPY should continue to reward those who dare to buy. For those who think that USDJPY is due for a major correction lower, don't hold your breath.

Update1:
At this moment, I must admit that I will stay neutral on USDJPY for now after taking profit at Y88.93. Y89.00 remains as pivot and a daily close above would see a push for a retest of Y90. However, I do not foresee a breakaway rally but instead a sideways consolidation between Y88-90 on wide for this week. For today, strong resistance at Y89.40/50 and USDJPY remains susceptible to negative news and has scope for a short term fall back to Y87 where I see good support. Basing on the Elliot Wave count, there is no signs of a completion of a major 5th wave (which implies end of uptrend) and I see USDJPY to power higher towards Y93 (not my final target though) in the month ahead. Challenge now is where to buy in.

Asian order book:
Stop loss: 87.70, 89.40, 89.00, 90.00 and 90.30/40
Limit: 88.00 and 89.50 (61.8%)

USDJPY Daily chart - DMA21 and Fibonacci ratio levels

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