E$ in the months ahead

Reaction to Bernanke's dovish comments was quite muted as market continues to consolidate from the parabolic price action the day before. Its probably trying to catch some breath before refocusing on the US sequester where the deadline is 1 March, not forgetting tomorrow is the month end close.
I thought this could be the best time to take a step back, neutralize our market bias, take a good objective look and plan ahead for next few weeks.
I have put together bullish and bearish technical signals to compare and finally to determine the most likely outcome.

Bullish Signals

• Daily indicators are at oversold levels
• Recent parabolic price action normally indicates market close to the end of trend, be it primary or secondary
• Intraday oscillator indicators are showing bullish divergence

Bearish Signals

• Month of February's candlestick should close with a Dark Cloud Cover (unless E$ is able rally back above 1.3380 to alleviate the bearish pressure)
• Price is staying below the Daily MA21 / 50 & 100, Weekly MA21 / 100 & 200 and Monthly MA21 / 50 & 100
• Weekly oscillators are pointing down

Other information:
Fibonacci ratio levels basing on the low of 1.2043 to the high of 1.3710
38.2%   1.3070
50.0%   1.2880
61.8%   1.2690

Macro level
In the E$ monthly chart below, I have highlighted a close resemblance of market's reaction on its first challenge above the MMA21 & 50 (red & green respectively). It was followed by a sharp sell-off in the subsequent month and spent around 2 months to consolidate to form a base for its next leg up.
Micro level
With a reversal Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern potentially happening in February, I expect further pressure on the E$ to test 1.2880 first followed by a rebound towards 1.33/3400 and subsequently 1.2700 to complete the correction (see chart).

For today, shorter intraday momentum are turning from down to consolidation but longer intraday is still pointing lower. With E$ still hovering below the 1.3120/30 pivot, it is still technically weak and is vulnerable for further probe to the downside. Expected initial rebound but 1.3090/3110 to cap. Expect range 1.2950/60 to 1.3090/3110. Short term bearishness is only alleviated when E$ is able to regain the pivot level.

If you are interested to learn more about the US sequester, information can be found in this website.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budget_Control_Act_of_2011

E$ Monthly chart - Pattern repetition?