Tuesday 25 June 2013

Lopsided order book an implication?

Overnight, E$ dropped to a low of 1.3059 before it shortcovered to print 1.31458 high and subsequently closed at 1.3117 to form a "doji". Up till this point in time, the price action is very much within expectation except that it has not pushed higher yet. Looking at the order book, it is quite apparent the stop loss orders are quite lopsided. Market focus is on the US durable goods data at 2030hrs (Sin/HK) and US consumer confidence at 2200hrs (Sin/HK) for today and probably the ECOFIN meeting starting tomorrow.

Europe order book:
Stop loss: 1.3030-20, 1.3160, 1.3175/80 and 1.3200/10
Limit: 1.3030-20

Primary trend: Bullish
Intermediate trend: Range between 1.28 to 1.34
Minor trend: Mildly bullish for 1.3200/50

Technically, shorter intraday indicator are nearing the o/b level but longer one is still in the o/s zone. Shorter intraday momentum continues to suggest consolidation while the longer one is still pointing lower. Looking at other technical signals, I expect E$ to hold 1.3070/80 for a test towards 1.3200 in the next 36hrs. Still prefer to trade on the long side until 1.3059 compromised.

E$ 8hourly chart - Expect a bounce into 1.3200/50 within 36hrs but can't get overly bullish.... 

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