Though I expected the E$ to turn lower yesterday but it fell way short of my target of 1.2870/80 before it happened. My initial thought as outlined in Monday's "More reasons to sell E$, take a moment...." was a return to the 1.2670/80 region in the next 48 to 54hrs. I am glad the guideline had limited my exposure on the long side and managed to get away with only a small loss. But what irks me was the fact that I did not monetize on this big move which I foresaw! But let's move on and look for another opportunity :)
Yesterday was really an event filled day with the following news hitting the market:
1. First trigger was the downgrade of Japan by Fitch
2. Fitch report that Eurozone need for further LTRO
3. Greek official disclosed that contingency plans are underway for Greek exit
Here's where the existing stop losses are residing based on yesterday's information:
1.2875 / 1.2850 / 1.2840/45 / 1.2820
1.2640 / 1.2624 (Large)
Trading today will be tricky. If 1.2624 is not breached yet and rebounded, look to sell around 1.2720/30 for the test and break of 1.2624.
However, if 1.2624 is breached first, I will not get overly bearish but instead look for buying opportunity around 1.2580/90 (to be confirmed) with 1.2720/30 to cap for today.
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| E$ Monthly Chart |
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