E$ supported by the crosses...

Reference "Awaiting for stronger signals....", 10 Sep, E$ rebounded after low of 1.32295 and high so far 1.3325, pausing after it achieved the 61.8% fibo correction. This has completed the next wave I anticipated. Important to note too is the emergence of the bearish divergent signal (see chart) but still premature to confirm. Though E$ has closed above the DMA21 at 1.3289, I am still refraining from getting too bullish. Additional support comes from the rebound in the EURxxx (sent tweet out yesterday to warn against getting too bearish EURxxx for now).

Europe order book:
Stop loss: 1.3330
Limit: 1.3230/20 and 1.3325
Order book looks very boring and therefore I do not expect anything exciting out of E$

Primary trend: Bullish
Intermediate trend: Bearish for 1.3000 (invalidated if 1.3452 breached)
Minor trend: Consolidation with slight upside bias

Technically, E$ is slowly nudging the intraday indicators into o/b zone, though not extreme yet. Intraday momentum continues to point higher. Combining other technical signals, I prefer to trade on the short side when nearer 1.3350/60. However, one would have to observe for fading intraday momentum. Expected range 1.3280/90 (1.3250 extended) to 1.3350/60.

E$ 2hourly chart - Bearish divergence around 61.8%

Awaiting for stronger signals....

Market reacted according to Scenario 1 (ECB dictates first...., 5 Sep13) with a low of 1.3104 before the rebound to high of 1.3281 so far. This has completed the wave I expected and anything from here could be a grind and with lesser certainty until the next lead.

CFTC COT report: Speculator's accounts as of 3 Sep 13
EUR    +40,081 vs  +22,738
JPY      -78,353 vs   -79,761
AUD   -71,117  vs   -71,501

Europe order book:
Stop loss: 1.3215, 1.3225, 1.3295 and 1.3310/20
Limit: 1.3100 and 1.3150/60

Primary trend: Bullish
Intermediate trend: Bearish
Minor trend: Mildly bullish

Technically, shorter intraday indicator is slipping into o/s but longer ones are still in o/b zone. Shorter intraday momentum is suggesting consolidation but longer ones are still pointing higher. Expect E$ to test the 1.3200/20 area before rebounding for 1.3300/20 again. Thereafter, I will step aside and watch to sell if it gets to 1.3350/70.

E$ 2hourly chart - 50% fibo achieved, watching 61.8%.... 

ECB dictates first...

Technical readings have flipped and probability for higher E$ has increased. Obviously the nearer event risk has to be ECB's rate announcement and the ensuing press conference at 1945 and 2030hrs (Sin/HK) respectively. Market at this moment has factored in no action from ECB.

Possible reactions:

Scenario A: ECB cuts rate by 25bps or bearish outlook - retest of 1.3138 but 1.3100/10 should hold for a rebound for 1.3270/3300.

Scenario B: ECB cuts rate by 50bps - sharp sell-off but 1.3040/50 to hold for rebound

Scenario C: ECB left rate unchanged - 1.3160/70 to hold for rebound for 1.3270/3300

NY order book:

Stop loss: 1.3145-30, 1.3250/60 and 1.3310/20

Limit: 1.3220/25

Primary trend: Bullish

Intermediate trend: Bearish

Minor trend: Mildly bullish

Technically, shorter intraday indicators are unwinding its o/b condition. Intraday momentum suggest consolidation between 1.3170/80 to 1.3200/20. Suggest risk below 1.3090 for take profit at 1.3250/60 and 1.3290/310.

E$ 2hourly chart - 

Awaiting signals....

Follow through sell pressure from the weak close last week should see E$ continue to probe the downside but one cannot get overly bearish when nearer the support band 1.3100-30. Upside handle 1.3230, if cleared, should open up for 1.3300.

These are the rest of economic data for the day (timing in Sin/HK):
2100   US Final Manufacturing PMI
2200   US ISM Manufacturing PMI
Of course, the market's main focus is the US employment numbers this Friday.

CFTC COT report: Speculator's accounts as of 27 Aug 13
EUR   +36,746 vs  +40,081
AUD   -63,183 vs  -71,117
JPY     -71,721 vs  -78,353
Specs are still adding on to long Euro positions!

Europe order book:
Stop loss: 1.3250/60, 1.3310/20 and 1.3345
Limit: 1.3150/45

Primary trend: Bullish
Intermediate trend: Bearish
Minor trend: Initial downside pressure but susceptible to shortcovering

Technically, shorter intraday momentum is suggesting consolidation but longer intraday is still pointing lower. Do note that bullish convergence signal has emerged but still premature to ascertain a bottom yet. I expect minor whipsaw price action and prefer to trade from the long side. Shall observe how the momentum unfold in the next 4-8hrs for more confirmation.

E$ 8hourly chart