Thursday, 5 September 2013

ECB dictates first...

Technical readings have flipped and probability for higher E$ has increased. Obviously the nearer event risk has to be ECB's rate announcement and the ensuing press conference at 1945 and 2030hrs (Sin/HK) respectively. Market at this moment has factored in no action from ECB.

Possible reactions:
Scenario A: ECB cuts rate by 25bps or bearish outlook - retest of 1.3138 but 1.3100/10 should hold for a rebound for 1.3270/3300.
Scenario B: ECB cuts rate by 50bps - sharp sell-off but 1.3040/50 to hold for rebound
Scenario C: ECB left rate unchanged - 1.3160/70 to hold for rebound for 1.3270/3300

NY order book:
Stop loss: 1.3145-30, 1.3250/60 and 1.3310/20
Limit: 1.3220/25

Primary trend: Bullish
Intermediate trend: Bearish
Minor trend: Mildly bullish

Technically, shorter intraday indicators are unwinding its o/b condition. Intraday momentum suggest consolidation between 1.3170/80 to 1.3200/20. Suggest risk below 1.3090 for take profit at 1.3250/60 and 1.3290/310.
E$ 2hourly chart - 

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