Back to the market on Friday..... hope someone caught part of the move up? I was expecting E$ to consolidate into the US employment numbers but the rally started sooner than expected during early Europe and momentum was strong into the US session all the way into the close. High so far has been 1.2817, achieving my initial target of 1.2800 way ahead in terms of timing ('Momentum is the word....', 6th Sep 12). I have yet to go short on E$ as it did not pan out as expected. Focus this week is on the FOMC rate decision and statement, on Thursday trading day (0030hr and 0215hrs Sin/HK, 14 Sep Fri).
CFTC speculative accounts revealed that net short position has increased modestly to -102,306 from -101,561 from the week before. Just for comparison purpose, the record net euro short position was at -214,418 contracts, seen on 5 Jun 12. Therefore, market is not exactly caught very short but it still does give the bulls incentive to squeeze out the rest.
Technically, intraday indicators are in the extreme o/b levels, though it can remain 'stucked' there in a trending market. Intraday momentum is starting to turn from up to consolidation but the daily upward momentum remains firm. With Friday's strong close on daily and weekly basis, initial follow-through bullish momentum is expected. Though intraday momentum has thrown out a bearish divergence signal on this recent wave up but I feel it is still premature. If market consolidates here and makes another spike up along with another divergence signal, only then will it go into a deeper and more elaborate correction. Having said that, underlying uptrend momentum remains strong and E$ should target 1.3000 next.
For today, if 1.2820/30 is not tested first, look to buy the dip. 1.2750/40 support with stronger at 1.2710/00 and 1.2840/50 first initial resistance.
 |
| E$ Daily chart - E$ broke out of channel |
No comments:
Post a Comment