Super Mario did it again sending E$ to a new recent high of 1.2652 after July's low of 1.20426. However, fund and sovereign supply capped the move backed by stronger US ADP data. E$ then whipped around taking out both short term longs and shorts before stabilizing around 1.263ish.
On the order book, stop loss orders are starting to build up again from 1.2490/80, 1.2550 and 1.2670/80. Noteworthy limit orders were heard to be residing at 1.2580, 1.2650 and 1.2670/80.
Technically, intraday indicators are all in o/b levels and probability gets lower for price to sustain after another rally, i.e. a potential spike higher before it turns lower again. Shorter term momentum is starting to turn from up to consolidation though the longer term continues to point higher. Important to note too is that there is an early sign of bearish divergence though still premature to confirm. The bullish piercing pattern on the monthly chart strengthened the case for higher E$ but do note that I expect E$ to at least test the lower band of the channel first before it turns. This is supported by the fact that EURAUD's recent rally has stalled and consolidation to take place.
In summary for today, if E$ consolidates around current levels and rally on US employment figures, I will be looking to fade into that price action (highest probability scenario). 1.2710/20 to cap with stronger resistance 1.2760/70 and 1.2560/50 support and stronger at 1.2490/80.
 |
| E$ Monthly chart - Reversal pattern |
No comments:
Post a Comment