Good weekend, everybody? I will be really looking forward to this coming one... its the Singapore F1 GP Night Race weekend here at the Marina Bay street circuit with Katy Perry and Maroon 5 to spice up the party!!!
Last Friday, the market exceeded my expectation and extended itself to go parabolic tripping the 38.2% Fibonacci level (see chart) to print high of 1.31688. Based on time and price and the resistance that are in place, E$ has probably run its course for this wave as mild bearish divergence emerges. The probability of sideways consolidation and then correction lower has increased significantly and a pullback into 1.3000 is becoming highly plausible. Having said that, the underlying bull trend remains very much intact and this consolidation is seen to be healthier for its next wave into the 1.34ish region.
I have not received the CFTC speculators account data just yet but will update all tomorrow if I do get them. Strangely, the stop loss order book is empty. I can imagine if there is no buy stops but even sell stops are not significant enough to be reported. Very likely, the buy stops have all been flushed and the longs have taken profit and therefore no sell stops are required anymore. Noteworthy limit orders can be found at 1.2850/55, 1.2930/35 and 1.3200.
Technically, daily indicator is at extreme o/b condition. Shorter term momentum has turned from up to consolidation but the longer term is still pointing firmly up. Sign of mild bearish divergence has emerged and this should alert us to be careful going overly long at current levels. For today, the expected trading range is between 1.3050/60 to 1.3180/1.3200 on first test and I prefer to be fading into rallies, provided 1.3050/60 is not tested first.
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| E$ Weekly - 38.2% target reached |
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