Clearly, yesterday's E$ range was pretty much a 3 in 1, an accelerated move which combined today and part of tomorrow into last night's price action. Normally the case when US is going into a super long weekend. Just by looking at the chart below, without too many other technical analysis, one would quickly conclude that E$'s ability to stay above another 3 & 1, the 3 DMAs (red-21, blue-200, brown-100) and just below 1 DMA (green-50), is a near term bullish signal. With market caught short as evident in the CFTC data ("Shortened week & poor liquidity", 19 Nov), a move back and close above 1.2900 (a crucial pivot level) would turn the technical quite bullish and could put the recent high of 1.3169 back on the radar again. EU leaders will meet on Monday (again) to discuss on the aids for Greece but the chances of a partial solution will get higher and this could be factored in by this week.
Order book updated this morning:
Stop loss: 1.2700, 1.2730, 1.2870 and 1.2910
Limit: 1.2880-900
Technically, intraday indicator is close to o/b level but not extreme and should still have room on the upside in a trending market. Intraday momentum remains firmly pointing up. 2 days of the long shadow doji (close) formation supports the bullish pictures. With a sharp reversal just yesterday, we may not see a deep correction before the next stage of the rally continues.
For today, before 1.2880/900 is tested, I am looking to buy dips. Expected range 1.2800/20 to 1.2880/900 (1.2950 expanded).
Do take note that market liquidity will be sub-optimal and expect a bit of whipsaw.
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| E$ Daily chart - Staying above 3 and just below 1... bullish signal? |
USDJPY
Upside momentum is fading on the JPYxxx and USDJPY should be capped below Y83.00 for now and a consolidation towards 81.80 is highly likely today.
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