Wednesday 21 November 2012

Near term reversal?

Good afternoon folks!!

Myth busted that golf is not a physically demanding game. Wait till you play 18-holes in an undulating course with a push cart (in Singapore) under 35 degrees Celsius (definitely felt like it) temperature with almost 90% humidity!! Looks like I need to jog 5km regularly to bring my fitness level to par.

On the market.... E$ almost closed with a doji formation (see chart) yesterday and today, it looks like an evening doji star formation at this moment. From yesterday's close, market was already all set for the negative news and it came when Germany's Schaeble announced that no agreement has been made and that the ministers are due to meet again Monday (are we so not surprised??). Failure to penetrate the 21DMA (see chart) and a subsequent rejection at that level is the first bearish signal for the E$. However, we are probably at the crossroad now with price stucked between 1.2750 and 1.2775 with a break either way would see a continuation in that direction for the next 4 hours.

Order book as of this morning:
Stop loss: 1.2700/05, 1.2720, 1.2828/30, 1.2900 and 1.2910
Limit: 1.2700/05, 1.2720 and 1.2900

Technically, shorter term intraday indicator is at o/s level though not extreme. Intraday momentum has turned from down to consolidation to up after it held 1.2737 for up to 4 hours but it is not conclusive. Taking all available technical tools into consideration, the bears have an upper hand now unless it recaptures 1.2775 to relieve the short term sell pressure. A close below 1.2740 today will put more pressure on E$ to retest recent low of 1.2661.
Expected range today: 1.2690/700 to 1.2820/30

Will update when I see opportunity in other currency pairs. All the best!
E$ Daily chart - Rejected at 21(red) DMA

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