Thursday 1 November 2012

No show hand....

Good morning, folks! Hope all enjoyed the Halloween celebration last night. Anyone can tell me who will be the happiest group of people after the trick or treat (mainly treat!)? Nope, not the kids.... (answer below the chart).

Once again, the market refused to show its side the obvious manner. It closed an inverted hammer and below the 21DMA (red) following a Tuesday's bullish piercing pattern and this should put initial pressure on the E$. However, the underlying bullish tone is garnering more support technically by the day:

  • Price staying above the 50DMA (green) and lower trend line. 
  • 50DMA has also cut above the 200DMA (blue) last Friday. 
  • Daily and weekly momentum are also pointing higher 
Do note that an inverted hammer is NOT a reversal signal. However, it is an indication that the bears had an upper hand towards the closing. 

Order book from last evening:
Stop loss: 1.2850, 1.2870, 1.2880/85, 1.2970 and 1.3020/25
Limit: 1.2880/85, 1.2910/25 and 1.3020/25

Technically, another day with a mixed bag of signals:
  • Bullish divergence has emerged in the intraday momentum and this should provide support amid a mildly o/s condition. 
  • Stops at 1.2970 will attract attention but initial resistance at 1.2980/90 should cap for now.
  • Notable buyers and sellers defined the range of 1.2880/90 to 1.3020/30 for now with intraday momentum supporting a consolidation mode.
I would trade the defined range but prefer to buy on dip for today and will patiently wait for market to test the 1.2890/1.2910 and look to take profit around 1.2970/80. 

All the best and stay nimble as we approach the apex of this consolidation.

E$ Daily chart - Bulls still have upper hand
(the dentists!!)

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