Kinda like an up and down day for me yesterday but overall happy. Just to share what I did for the purpose of learning. Reference the expected range from "Resilience..." (25 Oct Thu). Bought the E$ around the lower band and took part profit at the first resistance (down trend line - see graph). As bearish divergence emerged, I squared the remaining long E$ position higher than the first. Awaited for the dip and bought in again but this time in a smaller notional with a tighter stop and was hoping for the pair to test the stronger resistance. As E$ price action started to look uncertain, I decided to cut loss ahead of the stop on the 2nd position with a small loss. Net profit for the day. This is another lesson on how one should protect their profit based on the logic of reducing notional amount as you chase the market higher as the probability of winning reduces - inverse relationship. An important area in successful trading is in the ability to protect profits and limit the losses (though an obvious but many got carried away and allowed emotion to take over).
Clearly from the stop loss orders, market is quite torn on the eventual direction of E$ in the next 18hrs:
Stop loss: 1.2850, 1.2880, 1.2920, 1.3000, 1.3010 and 1.3040.
Technically, intraday indicator is at pretty neutral levels. Intraday to daily momentum continue to point to consolidation to lower though the weekly continues to point higher. More conflicting signals: E$ closed below the DMA21 (though already flirting that level for the past 3 days) but still above the longer term rising trend line (see graph).
In summary, I have this trading principle to avoid engaging the market when around the apex where we are right now. Allow the market to show its side, patience will pay in the long run.
I will be out with my family to the beach since its a public holiday in Singapore today. Will be back for Europe session later and will update the blog if anything.
All the best!
Update1: The breakdown has materialized. Rejected on retest of the DMA21 and broke the rising trend line have increased the probability significantly. E$ should be targeting 1.2830/40 level today.
 |
| E$ 8hourly chart - Rejected back and forth |
No comments:
Post a Comment