U.S. Election result to dictate...

Good Monday morning folks!!

Market has decided not to show its side the whole of last week as E$ continues to stay above pivot of 1.2990/3000 and below 1.3170. Focus this week should be this Wednesday's German Ifo Business Climate report at 1600hr (minor) and main focus on FOMC (Sin/HK Thursday 0215hr/0400hr) though I don't see how much this FOMC will add value since Fed is already on unlimited QE.
So chances are that we will be 'stucked' within the recent defined range until after the U.S. election on the 5 November 2012.
A couple of scenarios I have been thinking about to better prepare me in reaction:
1. Anticipation of a Mitt Romney win or the initial impact of an actual win will be USD positive. Why? Romney is very likely to fire Ben Bernanke and end the unlimited QE. At least for now, market finds him to be more pro business vs Obama's tax hike plan.
2. Anticipation or an actual win by Barack Obama will see E$ break out of its recent range continuing with its current trend as the recent Fed's decision will be here to stay.
Do note that this election is a major fundamentally driven event and it can throw technical rhythm off momentarily.

CFTC speculative accounts update showed that net euro short positions have been reduced to -53,495 from -72,570. This could be the result of the early week short squeeze and subsequently market was no longer keen to take on directional trades.

Noteworthy orders are as follow:
Stop loss: 1.2970/80, 1.3000, 1.3013, 1.3100/06 & 1.3150
Limit: 1.2950, 1.2970/80 & 1.3150

Technically, intraday indicator is at pretty neutral zone. But momentum is exhibiting a mixed bag of information across the different time intervals. The shorter term momentum is pointing to consolidation but with price at the lower band of that range, there is scope for uptick. However, daily momentum is pointing lower but the weekly is still pointing firmly higher (though can be lagging).
In summary, tough call but will go ahead and trade the range of 1.2990/1.3000 to 1.3100/10 on first test.

All the best and have a nice week ahead. Tomorrow's update will be delayed :)


Update1: Just thought I shared a couple of observations.
1. Last Friday after golf, one of my golf mates exclaimed that there are so many IPOs to choose from nowadays. Today in Singapore Business Times headline 'IPO pipeline hots up for Q4 burst'. History has it that prior to every stock market down trend, there were always that period where IPO hots up and accompanied by mergers and acquisitions. First sign?
2. Breakup momentum in USDJPY and USDSGD is good signal and may last into the U.S. election. This should be good early warning on how we should position for E$.

E$ 8hourly chart - Range ahead of U.S. election