US market will be opened today in time for the month end closing. But do note that month end positioning can create erratic price pattern especially during the NY session as they are the one closing the trading day.
This Friday's US employment numbers will be crucial as it can in a small way sway some voters either way. A strong positive number will help Obama and a weaker-than-expected number to Romney. As I have mentioned before ("U.S. Election result to dictate...", 22 Oct 12) that this period prior to the U.S. election, as long the polls show a split, market will stay range bound and how either incumbent wins, the impact it has on E$.
From a strictly technical point of view, E$ is staying above pivot levels in the longer term chart, at this moment, to allow bulls to have an upper hand. My take is... an Obama win should see E$ break up from its consolidation into the 1.32/3400 band since Ben Bernanke will be around for a while to continue with QE Infinity. However, a Romney win can send E$ down to 1.26ish level first before a rebound. Shall watch.....
Order book as of this morning:
Stop loss: 1.2840, 1.2870 and 1.3020/25
Limit: 1.2880/85, 1.3000/10 and 1.3020/25
Technically, from intraday to the daily chart, E$ is stucked like in between a whole series of moving averages and other technical supports and resistances. Shorter intraday momentum is pointing to consolidation to down with nearer resistance at 1.2980/90. Daily close yesterday still below 21DMA (see chart) but bounced off the 50DMA. Intraday bullish divergent signal and backed by a daily bullish piercing pattern on the candlestick should continue to back a E$ recovery.
For today, during Asian to European session, look to sell rally, with tight stop above resistance, and take profit above support at 1.2920/30. Abandon trade idea if 1.2920/30 is seen first. Then look to buy dip on first test of the 50DMA + lower trend line around 1.2870 and take profit 1.2920/30.
All the best. Stay nimble and infront of your screen if you are to scalp.
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| E$ Daily chart - Still trapped |
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