Indeed, the early warning signal from USDSGD and USDJPY has helped to guide my read on E$ (U.S. election result to dictate... 22 Oct Monday). Basically, the NY session was dominated by stop loss seeking as it wasted no time to plough through to 1.2952 where strong bids emerged. 61.8% fibonacci retracement level at 1.2946 is deemed to have been achieved. As I have found out from experience that certain candlestick pattern can be doubtful when market is caught within a range consolidation and therefore one has to adjust the weightage accordingly in different situations. Highlight for today will be the German Ifo business climate number this afternoon at 1600hr (Sin/HK) and FOMC at 0215 and 0400hr (Thursday).
I have not received updates on the order book yet but based on yesterday evening's remaining orders:
Stop loss: 1.3085, 1.3100 and 1.3120
Limit: 1.2950 and 1.3130
Technically, shorter term intraday indicator is at o/s level and the past hours of uptick is starting to unwind that situation. Intraday momentum is starting to turn from down to consolidation. Though E$ closed near to the lower day range, it still managed to stay above the 61.8% fibonacci level and daily MA21. I have various bullish signals from here but countered by the bearish engulfing candlestick pattern.
In summary, though there are conflicting signals but I prefer to go long E$ for today. Expected trading range 1.2950/60 to 1.3040/50 (1.3090/3100 expanded) within a wider 1.2800 to 1.3170.
All the best!
Update1: Went long E$ but got stopped out with tight stop. E$ having broken through 1.2950/60 may open up 1.2820/30 now but there is a premature bullish divergent signal on the momentum as it bounced mildly off a rising trend line at 1.2920. Staying out for now and await new signals. But for now, the bears have an upper hand at 60/40. Watch EUR/AUD as I see the recent uptrend has probably ended.
 |
| E$ 2hourly chart - Close to 61.8% correction target at 1.2946 |
No comments:
Post a Comment