Testing channel resistance.... (Update 1)

Up till this point in time, E$ is unfolding as guided in my update yesterday. E$ first rallied to touch high of 1.30749 before it fell back to 1.30098, only to find strong bids and managed to hold off anymore assault on the downside. It rebounded and has been holding 1.3030/40 till now. In the short term, the past 48 hours' price action suggest more upside potential for E$ but one has to bear in mind the market psychology as we gets closer to Thursday as there have been chatters of possibility of a rate cut by ECB. At this moment, market is probably eyeing the stop loss orders up there. However, E$ may very quickly reverse its gain and we may find this pair back below 1.3000 ahead of the announcement. Therefore, learn to take profit today and don't forget your trailing stop. Daily closing will be closely watched as E$ may flirt around the 1.3130/40 pivot and will be tricky. It will be tempting to go short around those levels but will need confirmation on the technical signals before committing.

Asian order book across the market highlighting only the noteworthy ones:
Stop loss: 1.2950, 1.3080 and 1.3105/10
Limit: 1.2880 and 1.2950

Technically, intraday indicators have moved off from its o/s levels overnight but it still has room on the upside. Intraday oscillator indicator is pointing strongly up suggesting healthy momentum for E$ to test higher. Current price action suggest that any correction will be shallow as it gears itself for an impulsive rally. 1.3080/90 being a minor resistance with stronger at 1.3120/30. E$'s probability to sustain above 1.3130/40 will drops off significantly for this wave. Before 1.3120/30 is seen, 1.3020/30 should hold on first test.

E$ 8-hourly chart - Testing the top of channel

Update1:
Sorry friends, got caught up the whole day and reckon I will only find time later tonight during the NY session to provide a more detail update.
Meantime, just a quick study of the technical signals suggest that underlying momentum is turning up and that has increased the probability of a near term base formed around 1.2940/50. One has to note that market has to certain extent priced in a possibility of an ECB rate cut already. If rate stayed unchanged and/or Draghi issue a slightly hawkish statement, E$ will short cover and rally towards 1.3120/30. Strong support comes in at 1.2870/80.
In summary, ECB rate announcement is a major risk event and it will overwhelm technical signals. Normal range 1.2940/50 to 1.3120/30. Expanded range 1.2870/80 to 1.3170/90.
I placed 60/40 probability for a higher E$ today.