Tuesday, 19 March 2013

Main actor.... Cyprus!

E$ came shy of just a few pips to close the gap but sellers overwhelmed and price dropped back to consolidate  around 1.295ish level. A daily close forming a long-legged doji candlestick pattern indicate uncertainty with slight upside bias. However, I still maintained that it is highly risky to take side at this current level as market awaits the Cyprus' parliamentary decision on the deposit tax legislation. Price action continues to be very consolidative, a clear sign of neutrality awaiting a potential overwhelming fundamental.

A tabulation of the signals:
Bearish

  • Price below pivot level of 1.3120/30 
  • Price still within bearish channel
  • Daily and weekly momentum still indicating scope for downside
  • Gap not closed yet

Bullish

  • No follow-through selling after Monday
  • A rejection just above DMA200 at 1.2870/80
  • Market could be overly bearish at this moment
  • Emergence of bullish divergent signal

Primary trend: Bullish
Intermediate trend: Bearish
Minor trend: Mixed

Europe order book across the market:
Stop loss: 1.2855/40, 1.2860, 1.3005, 1.3010 and 1.3040/50
Limit: 1.2855/40, 1.2985/75 and 1.2990/3000

Technically, intraday indicators are in neutral levels. Intraday oscillators continue to point down though there is bullish divergent signal (too premature to confirm yet). Given a very mixed bag of indicators, I would still see bears having a slight edge at current level but market is susceptible to short-covering and overshooting. I see strong support at 1.2860/70 and 1.3050/60 to cap, both on first test. Will be happy to scalp from both extremes with tight stops. Admittedly, it will have to be a low percentage call today as market is more fundamentally driven at the moment.
E$ Daily chart - Gap not covered but no follow through yet...

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