Tuesday, 5 March 2013

Momentum waning....

E$ attempted several times but failed to break new ground as Friday's low of 1.29668 held overnight. A late rebound resulting in a firmer day close at 1.3025 formed a mildly bullish signal which market reacted accordingly up till this point in time. High so far had been 1.3060. Daily oscillator indicator is throwing out a bullish divergent signal (see chart) but it can still be premature to confirm. Taking into consideration other technical signals, price action is no longer as bearish as it was last Friday and there is an initial sign of market bottoming but it is also too premature to confirm. However, a weekly close above pivot level of 1.3120/30 would weaken the recent bear trend.

London order book across the market:
Stop loss: 1.2950, 1.3080 & 1.3105/10
Limit: 1.2880 and 1.3080

For today, shorter intraday indicators have gone into o/b zone and shorter intraday oscillator is suggesting the upside momentum is waning. Longer intraday indicator is just coming out of the o/s level and its momentum is turning from down to consolidation which at current level would suggest more potential for uptick. Putting them together, I expect price to ease off from the high for now but would consolidate for the next leg higher. 1.2990/310 should provide good support before E$ attempts at 1.3080/90 and then 1.3110/20 (on first test). Bulls would have to back off thereafter and await further signals. Risk should be limited to below 1.2965 for this round.
E$ Daily chart - Bullish Divergent signal

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