Spillover momentum first...

E$ closed February at 1.3055 confirming a very bearish Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern. It quickly made its presence felt as it started off the first day of March breaking February's low of 1.3018 to print 1.2967 before a mild rebound to close the week. With this scenario, the level of 1.2690/700 is put back on the radar screen.
For this month, I expect a pretty whipsaw one. First week of March will probably see market riding on the bearish momentum to push lower probably towards 1.2850/900 on the back of a potential rate cut decision come Thursday. That may be followed by a phase of consolidation. and then a short squeeze back to 1.3260/3300 before falling back to retest the low again.

CFTC COT report: Speculative accounts have changed sentiment as net euro positions have turned to -9,394 vs +19,103. JPY net change remains marginal at -65,344 vs -65,891.

Asian order book across the market:
Stop loss: 1.3115/20 and 1.3165-85
Limit: 1.3100 (opt), 1.3130/40 and 1.3160/65

Technically, intraday indicators are in o/s level and shorter intraday oscillators are showing signs of waning momentum but longer ones are still pointing lower, though there is a premature indication of bullish divergence. At current parameters, market would more likely to hold and rebound if there is another sell-off. For today, the more likely scenario would be 1.
Scenario 1:
Market correct higher but capped at 1.3080/90 and fall through to 1.2930/50 and close low.
Scenario 2:
Market drop towards 1.2930/50 and then rebound to probe resistance at 1.3080/120.

E$ Monthly chart - The ominous Dark Cloud Cover

AUDUSD
In "V-shaped recovery, 6 Feb 13", I projected a couple of check-points for AUD$ before its target of parity. First was 1.0220 where it held the AUD$ for awhile before it broke lower again. Second mark is 1.0150 and low today 1.01568. Price action continues to suggest more downside potential as market position itself for the RBA rate decision tomorrow morning at 11:30am (Sin/HK). Current sentiment remain dovish as a 25bps rate cut is being factored into the price now. Even if RBA does not cut tomorrow, a knee-jerk rebound will probably be sold off again as the probability of the rate cut would be even higher in the next meeting. For this week, 1.0230 should cap and target of 0.9960/1.0000. Thereafter, bears have to be a bit more cautious to look out for short squeeze signals.

AUD$ Monthly chart - Remains heavy