As expected, the disciplined E$ stayed within the range (l.3067 to 1.3132) except that it was capped at the first resistance before falling back to close the day exactly at where it opened (1.3075) forming a "doji". A "doji" candlestick pattern on its own and not at important high or low does not have much significance except that it indicates market uncertainty which can go either way. Looking at the price action within the outlined triangle, one would have quickly noticed that the market has spent more time testing the downside. Coupled with the order book information, the probability is still higher for further probe on the upside for the next 24hrs where there is still tradable range before it narrows further. Having said that, I am one who normally would avoid trading when closer to the apex in any consolidation because the probability would drop significantly to 50%, which is at gambling zone. Note that the French, Swiss and German will be off tomorrow but hopefully the Aussie employment numbers at 9:30am (Sin/HK) can spillover some action into E$.
Asia order book:
Stop loss: 1.3180
Limit: 1.3020/00, 1.3050 and 1.3130/50
Primary trend: Bullish
Intermediate trend: Bullish
Minor trend: Mixed as consolidation range tapers
Technically, intraday indicator has just come out of the o/s zone as a result of this morning's reaction to the CNY trade balance number but there is still lots of room on the upside. Intraday oscillator indicator is still suggesting range consolidation between 1.3040/60 to 1.3130/50 with first level of stronger resistance at 1.3115/25. Advice: Stay nimble and trade in reduced notional amount.
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| E$ Hourly chart - Range tapering.... |
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