Mean reversion day?

Despite the strong downside momentum from last week's weak close, E$ managed to hold 1.29348 (last week's low) with a low of 1.29358 on Monday before rebounding to today's high of 1.3026. Given the last 24 hours' price action, it has increased the probability of a near term bottom with E$ gearing up to retest the DMA21 (1.3065) that it broke down from last Thursday. I am sure with the ongoing ECOFIN meeting and the German ZEW Economic Sentiment (5pm Sin/HK), there are more than enough stimulant to inject volatility into the market.
Interestingly, a subtle difference between the Asia and Europe order book has indicated the importance around the DMA21.

Asia order book:
Stop loss: 1.2845 and 1.3055
Limit: 1.2860/50, 1.2935 and 1.3040/50

Europe order book:
Stop loss: 1.2845 and 1.3035-50
Limit: 1.2860/50, 1.2935 and 1.3050-70

Primary trend: Bullish
Intermediate trend: Bullish
Minor trend: Mildly bullish (Down / Up market)

Technically, shorter intraday indicator is near to o/b zone but the longer intraday one is still at the o/s level, which fits my other technical signals that the probability of a down/up market from here. Shorter intraday oscillator indicator is suggesting range consolidation with current price level being at the upper band. However, longer intraday momentum is a mixed bag. Putting everything together, I see 2 probable scenarios:
Scenario1: 1.3020/30 to cap with E$ falling back to 1.2950/60 before a rally for 1.3050/70
Scenario2: E$ holds 1.2980/90 and rally for 1.3050/70 before falling back to 1.2940/50.
I have to admit that at this point in time, I am leaning more towards Scenario1.
Stay nimble and don't be a slave to a single position!!

E$ Daily chart - Mean reversion to DMA21