Major risk event to overwhelm....

E$ managed to hit a high of 1.3243 before profit-taking set in and pressure the pair lower during the NY session. Expectations of a 25bp rate cut by ECB (7:45 / 8:30pm Sin/HK) continue to cap any advance. This is an important risk event and it will overwhelm technical analysis. But considering the price actions where E$ rallied past 1.32012 despite the negative sentiment overhanging the market since Monday, I will try to come up with a couple of scenarios to better prepare ourselves mentally.

Scenario 1: ECB fails to cut or cuts 25bps.....
Knee-jerk reaction to take us back to test 1.3200/20 before sell-off to 1.3040/60 as market would believe the probability of a cut in the subsequent meeting will become even higher. Can't get overly bearish there as I expect a rebound after that. Note that 1.2960/80 is a much stronger support level.

Scenario 2: ECB cuts 50bps.....
This is a shocker and E$ could plummet as deep as 1.2960/80 by tomorrow but I expect a subsequent rebound.

European order book:
Stop loss: 1.3130/20 and 1.3240/60
Limit: 1.3030/10

Primary trend: Bullish
Intermediate trend: Bullish
Minor trend: Vulnerable to long liquidation to flush downside after recent rally before higher again.

Technically, all intraday signals will not be relevant on a major risk event like today. I'll react accordingly to how the market unfolds having the above 2 scenarios and the intermediate trend as guide.

E$ 4-hourly chart - A dip before higher?