E$ holding precariously....

E$ reacted almost exactly as forecast under Scenario 1 in "Major risk event to overwhelm....", 2 May Thu. High printed after the 25bps rate cut was 1.3218 before dropping to a low of 1.3038. Another major risk event tonight at 8:30pm (Sin/HK) and I have come up with the possible outcomes in reaction.

Scenario 1: Within expectation or Weaker than expected US employment numbers
1.3030/50 to hold and E$ stage a rebound to test 1.3170/3200

Scenario 2: Stronger than expected
1.3100/20 to cap and E$ plummets to 1.2960/80 before rebounding back above 1.3000 to close the week.

Asia order book:
Stop loss: 1.3100 and 1.3240/60
Limit: 1.3010 and 1.3055/50

Primary trend: Bullish
Intermediate trend: Bullish
Minor trend: Subject to data, another dip before rebounding.

Technically, intraday indicator is in o/s level though not extreme. Shorter intraday oscillator indicator is starting to show a turn in momentum from down to consolidation which at current level would mean upside bias. However, longer intraday momentum is still pointing down. From now till tonight's US data release, I expect market to stay range trapped within 1.3030/50 to 1.3100/20. Do note that at this moment, E$ is staying below important technical levels which in fact has a higher probability for a test lower. Ability to regain 1.3100 will relieve the sell pressure. I prefer to react only after the data.

E$ 4-hourly chart - Trendline should hold unless data disppoints