Easy money is over for now....

Easy money for this rally is nearing the end and expect market to profit take ahead of FOMC rate decision and statements.

Risk events this week include:
Wednesday's FOMC rate decision and statement (2 May, Thu 2am Sin/HK)
Thursday's ECB rate decision (7:45pm Sin/HK) and Press Conference (8:30pm Sin/HK)
Friday's US employment numbers (8:30pm Sin/HK)

CFTC COT report (positions as of 23 Apr 13):
Euro:  -34,275 vs -29,764
Jpy:    -79,730 vs -93,411

NY order book:
Stop loss: 1.3130/20
Limit: 1.3030/10, 1.3055/50 and 1.3130/20

Primary trend: Bullish
Intermediate trend: Bullish (1.32012 breached)
Minor trend: Can't get overly bullish around 1.3260/70, expect consolidative price action

Technically, intraday indicators are all in o/b zone though not in extreme. Shorter intraday momentum is suggesting a near term top but longer intraday momentum is still pointing firmly higher. These contradicting signals may not indicate a turning point but it serve as a warning against getting aggressively bullish. For today, I see 1.3260/70 to cap for now with 1.3160/70 to hold on the downside.

E$ Daily chart - 50% fibo target reached

Regular update will resume in the afternoon tomorrow.