Thank God for being mentally prepared for tricky Friday (The final countdown... 20 Jul). Admittedly, I was drawn into believing that E$ might have another go higher before it turns down for 1.2162. However, I was glad I trusted my instinct and flipped to join the bear camp fast enough to recoup my initial loss. All these at the expense of canceling my movie evening (Dark Knight Arises) with my son which I made up on Sunday evening. The movie was great, my son and I enjoyed it. Entertainment for that evening did not end there for me.... once back home, it was F1 followed by the Open Championship. Congratulations to Alonso and Ernie Els and bad news for Sebastien Vettel and Adam Scott.
Ok, back to the market..... Despite the sharp drop last week, latest CFTC speculative accounts only added a marginal increase in E$ shorts to -167,249 from -165,705.
Technically, the bears are in control now with the critical 1.2162 taken out. Shorter intraday momentum is giving hint of consolidation but longer term ones are still pointing down. Price action is coming to the stage whereby any sharp drop in price will be countered by sharp rebound of a smaller degree. With that in mind, one should hold a structural short followed by the intraday buy/sell to trade.
For today, 1.2150/60 to cap (1.2210/20 news induced) and first support 1.2070/80 followed by 1.2020/50. In focus now is the Jun 2010 low of 1.1875.
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E$ Daily chart - Bearish channel |
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