Quite clearly, market has decided to stay relatively sidelined instead of showing a more directional play until probably the final hours of the month end. The rally from the low of 1.20421 to 1.23899 has completed a 5 wave count and it seems apparent that we are into the correction of that rally where a retracement of 61.8% would bring us back to 1.2175. Just to recap on what I mentioned yesterday that on a weekly basis, last week's candlestick was a bullish engulfing pattern. However, the daily bar yesterday was a bearish engulfing pattern, which suggest that we should see spillover selling momentum today. But we should see a counter-directional 'B' wave higher before E$ goes lower again to complete the correction. In short, expect to see higher E$ first before lower again.
Let's see how the stop loss orders are stacked up as of now: 1.2305, 1.2225/20 and 1.2180/70.
For today, 1.2320/30 to cap on first test (1.2360/70 news induced) and 1.2175/65 to hold on first test (1.2100/080 news induced). I have widened the boundary to accomodate potential irregular moves.
Bear in mind that today is the month end and liquidity is very likely to be sub-optimal. Stay nimble as market can get whippy and volatile.
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