Tuesday 10 July 2012

Dead cat bounce?

Good morning folks!

Summit after summit, bail-out after bail-out..... E$ is at 1.2310. So unwanted that even the GBP$ is performing better on relative basis. Just a side-track..... wonder how much money can be saved from the expenses on these meetings eg. the business class air tickets, hotel suites, limousine service, cost of security service, etc..... should use more video-conference!
Meeting continues today and market should be more sensitive to good news as market is caught slightly short on its way down.

Nothing interesting on the stop loss front with only one at 1.2200 for now.

Technically, the past 24hrs' consolidation has unwound its o/s condition into neutral. Short/medium term momentum has turned up and longer term is still at consolidation to down. With the emergence of bullish divergence and its price action characteristic, it does look like we could have formed a temporary base and ready to correct last week's drop. The correction level based on Fibonacci ratio is shown in the chart below.
I remain bearish on the weekly basis for 1.20ish and would prefer to await for sell signal for positioning (when closer to 1.24) but for now would scalp on the long side.

For today, 1.2250/60 to hold on first test (1.2200/20 news induced) and 1.2350/60 to cap (1.2440/50 news induced).
E$ 4-hourly chart
All the best!

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