Last night, Asian sovereigns, mideast and Dutch name (rumoured to be acting for SNB) were sellers of E$ at 1.2300 along with the slide in EURxxxs. That was the impulsive wave I foresaw and mentioned in "Bears took one day too many (19Jul Thu)". Sell stops were flushed as it dropped to the low of 1.2229 before market rebounded and stabilise at 1.227ish.
Based on what I have yesterday, the balance of the stop loss orders happened to be buy stops starting from 1.2325/30, 1.2335 and 1.2410. Of course, market would also have to contend with the strong offers at 1.2320/25, 1.2340/50 and 1.2400/05.
Technically, intraday indicators have turned neutral and price band are also tapering. However, more bullish MA crossover is happening as consolidation extends itself with higher lows and higher highs. Taking everything into consideration, there seem to be a slight skew towards the upside but it can be tricky, so stay nimble. Though I may have joined the bull camp for now, I am still a mini bull within a bear fan, until such time when the longer term momentum indicates otherwise. Also to note that there is a slight bullish divergence on the weekly chart but still premature to confirm the signal as we probably need another 2 weeks worth of data before anything more substantial. This near term bullish view will be invalidated once 1.2180/90 breaks.
For today, still prefer to buy on dip. 1.2240/50 to hold (1.2210/20 news induced) and to manage a tiered profit take at 1.2360 and subsequently 1.2430 and 1.2470 which may not happen today.
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| E$ Daily chart |
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