Wednesday 11 July 2012

Before it gets lower.....

Good Wednesday morning folks!

Hope all had a great field day.

Yesterday's session lacked direction and was basically stop loss seeking. Market first took out the stubborn batch at 1.2325-30 before it gunned for the lot below 1.2280 and 1.2250. The selling stalled when bids emerged ahead of some hear say optionality at 1.2230.

I have no updates yet for today on the stop loss levels but based on what I've got yesterday were those residing around 1.2200, 1.2220 and 1.2365. Reckon would have some build up above 1.2335/40 today.

Sentiment from overnight is still bearish the E$ and most were too keen to stay short at current levels. Though I am bearish on a weekly basis, I am not very convinced that E$ is ready to break lower without first revisiting the 1.2360/70 level.

A quick scan across the EURxxxs show that the crosses look bottomish and is due for a corrective rebound. This is E$ supportive.

On the technical front, shorter term indicator has slipped into o/s condition though not extreme and momentum has turned to consolidation to up. On the flip side, longer term momentum is still pointing firmly down and yesterday's weak close on a daily basis is also a signal one cannot ignore.

Having weighed all available signals, I maintain my strategy of scalping long and positioning for short. For today, 1.2200/30 to hold on first test (1.2170/80 news induced) and 1.2360/70 to cap.

E$ Fibonacci levels
All the best!

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