Coincidence or what?

Goood Monday morning folks! Today marks my 100th blog post and I hope to maintain this discipline and consistency for as along as I realistically can. Thank you for your support!

Last Friday, Merkel and Hollande joined in Super Mario's effort to inject confidence in the market in their bid to defend the Euro. That propelled the E$ to the high of 1.23898 before it slammed back to where it started the rally at 1.2280 before closing at 1.2321 for the week. On Sunday, Italy's Monti and Merkel once again voiced their support but that only managed a small pop during the NZ open. Clearly, this novelty is at the stage of diminishing returns as in all instances, they stopped short of any details. But one thing is for sure, they have raised the expectations that they are able to pull something out of Felix the Cat's magic bag to save Eurozone.... for good or kicking the can down the autobahn?

This week will be interesting..... Call it coincidence but it happens all the time with market moving announcements in a full moon week. Go check out the weekly calendar for details. Full moon falls on Thursday and +/- 2 days will cover from Tuesday to last business day of the week.

CFTC speculative accounts trimmed their net short euro short to -155,066 from -167,249 following last week's short squeeze.

Technically, shorter term momentum is suggesting consolidation as it unwinds the o/b condition. E$ does look like a retracement is due after 3 days' (Nowotny/Mario/Merkel & Hollande) of rally. However, one has to take note of the weekly bullish engulfing pattern which has increased the probability of further gains in E$.
But for today, risk/reward favours fading into rallies. 1.2370/90 to cap (1.2420/40 news induced) and 1.2200/20 to hold, both on first test.

E$ 4-Hourly chart

All the best and have a great week ahead. 

Update for tomorrow will be delayed as I have an early morning tee-off for 18.