E$ caught short once again....

Choppy price actions continue to plague the market as we move into the final trading day within the full moon zone. Market was caught short with the ECB rate cut anticipation but right after a series of buy stops were flushed (intraday high: 1.3094), stop loss hungry hunters turned around and sold the E$ down to 1.2988 on the back of the same story.
Following the steep overnight sell-off, market could have once again be caught short the E$. Based on the available information in the order books and technical resistance/support, the path of least resistance could be up with possible clusters of buy stops residing just above. The stop order at 1.2950 though tempting, has to content with real money and reserve managers' buy orders from 1.2950 to 1.2980.

In hindsight, knowing it was full moon zone, I should have just shared my forecast on that remote possibility of E$ falling back to 1.2990 yesterday..... it materialized!!!
Scenario 1:
E$ to hold 1.2980/90 and rally to touch 1.3130/40 before easing to close the week below 1.3100.

Scenario 2:
E$ to hold 1.2980/90 and consolidate within 1.3000 to 1.3050/70 with choppy price action.

Asia order book:
Stop loss: 1.2950/40, 1.3060/70 and 1.3115/30
Limit: 1.2980-50, 1.3060/70 and 1.3115/30

Primary trend: Bullish
Intermediate trend: Bearish
Minor trend: Upside bias from current level (see above scenarios)

Technically, shorter intraday indicators are in o/s level (not extreme) with the longer intraday just coming out of the o/s condition with lots of room on the upside. Intraday oscillator indicators are all pointing to consolidation within 1.2980/90 to 1.3050/70. As I type, E$ is already shortcovering. Will update later.

E$ 4-hourly chart - Technical sign of uncertainty at current level