Buying time....

Following the short squeeze last week, E$ is now ensnared by moving averages in both the daily and weekly charts leaving it in a relatively tight range. The quick reversal that I was expecting on Thursday and Friday did not materialize as it held 1.3000 to close the week firm at 1.3064 forming a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern. Despite the initial bearish reversal view, one has to sit up and pay some attention and respect to that technical signal though I still maintain that the recent high of 1.3206 may still stay intact. However, I am mentally prepared for another spike higher towards 1.3250 before lower again which at the moment does not have a high probability of happening (see chart).
Surprisingly, the order book has been very light and it may appear that many are still not back into E$ yet after that vicious move. Until such time when there is big enough sell stops built below 1.3000, market is probably going to consolidate further with a slight upside bias. Hopefully, the German ZEW data due out tomorrow at 5:00pm (Sin/HK) will inject some action into this lacklustre pair.

A brief technical outlook for the following:
USDJPY: Mildly bullish for 101.00 but be aware that last week closed a dark cloud cover candlestick pattern. Coupled with signal that this pair is ripe for a reversal in the trend indicator, one has to avoid getting overly bullish.
AUDUSD: Decreasing downside momentum with bullish convergence and potential reversal signal in the trend indicator should alert one not to get overly bearish especially when nearer 0.8850/900.

CFTC's COT report: Speculator's accounts as of 9 July 13
EUR:  -40,900 vs -16,090
JPY:   -80,305 vs -70,736
AUD: -63,255

Europe order book:
Stop loss: 1.2995
Limit: 1.2930/20 and 1.3005/00
(Note: the large sell interest and stop order at 1.3130-50 is no longer around)

Primary trend: Bullish
Intermediate trend: Bearish for 1.2400
Minor trend: Mixed

Technically, most indicators have gone into neutral zone and today's range is expected to be confined within 1.3020/30 to 1.3080/90.

E$ Weekly chart - Another possible scenario....