Where art thou going, my precious metal?

Since my last writeup "Initial target hit, whatz next for XAUUSD?", 15 Apr 13, the yellow metal has touched my 2nd target and its time for another update.
To give all a sense of proportion and perspective, I have included a multi-year monthly chart here.
After touching a low of $1,180, XAUUSD has managed a recovery to $1,375, just shy of the pivot band at $1,390/400.

Fundamentally, XAUUSD's recent years of rally was on the back of Fed's QE, it is quite difficult to reconcile with the speculation that gold has completed its downward correction here and is due to head much higher from here when Fed is only just starting talk on tapering. Therefore, I humbly feel that this precious metal has scope for more downside and price will probably languish around the low, until maybe one day when fears of global inflation start to steal the headlines.

Technically, as long as it stays below the pivot level, probability of the yellow metal falling back to retest the recent low is high. That being said, I have observed that the recent recovery's price action has packed quite abit of momentum. As a result, there is sign of bullish convergence though its still very premature to place too much weighting on this signal. But it may give hint of a potential temporary bottom with XAUUSD going into a more elaborate consolidation between $1,200 to $1,400.
As of now, I place a higher probability of another wave lower towards $950-$1,050 to complete this cycle of correction.

Primary trend: Bearish for $950-$1,050
Intermediate trend: Range between $1,200 to $1,400

XAUUSD Monthly chart - Better perspective with a long term chart