Despite the much stronger US employment data last Friday, market failed to follow through with the selling pressure and that encouraged shortcovering taking E$ to an intraday high of 1.2898 clearing some weak buy stops along the way. Is the market still fixated with the recent USD positive development and looking to fade into any E$ rally? At the moment, short term technical signals are quite mixed and I will have to remain patient and not force a view. When in doubt, I will fall back to my intermediate trend view for guidance. For now, last heard there is a large option barrier at 1.2800 and that together with the sell stop orders at 1.2790 may become a magnet for another test there before any rebound towards the trendline support turned resistance at around 1.2930/50.
Europe order book:
Stop loss: 1.2745/40, 1.2790, 1.2845/40, 1.2900-10 and 1.2950/60
Limit: 1.2930/35
Primary trend: Bullish
Intermediate trend: Range between 1.32 to 1.24
Minor trend: Mixed to Mildly bullish (corrective)
Technically, intraday indicators have come off its o/s condition but the daily is still in o/s zone (see top chart). Momentum indicators are showing a mixed bag of signal. However, trend indicator is showing that E$ is ripe for a near term bounce. Expected trading range 1.2820/30 (1.2780/90 expanded) to 1.2930/50.
 |
| E$ Daily chart - Potential brief rebound to unwind o/s condition before lower again.... |
 |
| E$ Monthly chart - Down then up into Q4 |
No comments:
Post a Comment