The time of the month....

Market got an early treat to the full moon effect as PBOC's move on Friday and the post Japan election Monday gave speculators the best excuse to inject volatility. Despite the sharp move higher, 1.3180/200 remains intact as E$ continues to consolidate within the defined range (see chart). Likewise for A$, this pair still lacks near term direction as it consolidates within 0.9010/30 to 0.9280/310.

CFTC COT's report: Speculator's accounts as of 16 Jul 13
EUR:   -37,165 vs -40,900
JPY:    -85,762 vs  -80.305
AUD:  -70,686 vs -63,255
Except for E$, JPY and A$ have both added on to their existing short positions

Europe order book:
Stop loss: 1.2990, 1.3050-40, 1.3065, 1.3080 and 1.3200/10
Limit: 1.3055/50, 1.3125/20, 1.3170-90, 1.3200/10 and 1.3250/60

Primary trend: Bullish
Intermediate trend: Range between 1.2800 to 1.3200/50
Minor trend: Mildly bearish

Technically, intraday indicators are heading into o/b territory. Intraday momentum has been neutral and still pointing to consolidation which at current level (1.3165) would suggest higher downside risk. This is also supported by intraday trend indicator which is shows that E$ is ripe for a reversal. I shall maintain the same strategy of trading the defined range for now. For today, expected range 1.3170/90 to 1.3080/100.

E$ 8-hourly chart - Still within the defined range....