Tuesday, 2 July 2013

Slight upside bias..... (Update 1)

E$ continues to be trapped between the strong support at 1.3000 and the bunch of daily MAs ranging from 1.3055 to 1.3085. However, I foresee a breakout within 24hrs. This week will be a bit trickier to "feel" the cycle as US celebrates Independence Day on Thursday and then followed by the important US Change in Non-farm Payroll numbers. In the meantime, it does seem like market is caught slightly short and the buy stops may end up being the more attractive target for this round.

Europe order book: (Updated in italic and underlined)
Stop loss: 1.2980-70, 1.3015/10, 1.3075-80 and 1.3100/10
Limit: 1.2960/50, 1.2985/90 and 1.3075-80

Primary trend: Bullish
Intermediate trend: Range between 1.28 to 1.34
Minor trend: Mildly bullish for 1.3170/90 (1.3220/50 expanded)

Technically, shorter intraday indicators have moved into o/b level but the longer ones are above the 50% but still off the o/b zone yet. Intraday momentum indicators have turned from consolidation to an upside bias which has increased the probability of a break to the upside. First important resistance is at 1.3100/05, clearing which exposes 1.3140/50, 1.3170/90 and then 1.3220/50. Yes, quite abit of headwind and be forewarned not to get overly bullish when nearer 1.3200 and do tread with caution. For today, 1.3030/50 to hold for now.

Update1: Europe order book has been updated. Last heard Asian sovereign sales above 1.3070. Still a tough call to go long until at least a close above the daily MAs. But by then, there is not really alot of mileage left. Would already be looking for sell opportunity when nearer 1.3200. Therefore, unless infront of the screen, it will be more of a momentum buying on break of 1.3100 for a quick run for 1.3140/50. Has to stay nimble.
E$ 8-Hourly chart - Short term bottom at 1.3000 should trigger a mild rebound

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