Still below daily MAs....

E$ only managed 1.31029 high before falling all the way back briefly below 1.3000 and then closed at 1.3007 on the last day of the 1H 2013, where the high this year has so far been 1.37108 and low 1.27447. Admittedly, I never saw the sell-off coming but am already happy having caught the initial move up.  Today, we started the 2H just above the 1.3000 level and have so far tested up to 1.3053. In view of E$ closing below the bunch of daily MAs (MA100 - 1.3059, MA200 - 1.3075, MA50 - 1.3085), one has to admit that the bears have an upper hand for now. Market's main focus will obviously be the US Change in Non-farm Payroll number this coming Friday.

CFTC COT report (Speculator accounts): As of 25 Jun 2013
Eur: +17,357 vs +20,030
Jpy:  -61,462 vs  -61,890

Europe order book:
Stop loss: 1.2985/80 and 1.3120
Limit: 1.2960/50 and 1.3060-80

Primary trend: Bullish
Intermediate trend: Range between 1.28 to 1.34
Minor trend: Mixed

Technically, shorter intraday indicator is in the o/b territory but longer intraday is still coming out of the o/s zone. Do note that the daily indicator is still in the o/s level. Intraday momentum is suggesting range consolidation for now. Frankly, I struggle to put together a view for today and when this happens, it will be a low probability call. The range of least resistance/support is 1.3000 to 1.3050 and expanded range 1.2970/80 to 1.3070/80.

E$ Daily chart - Bunch daily MAs still a threat to E$ bulls