Thursday 11 July 2013

End of USD bull trend? .... Wait!

Market has definitely gotten ahead of itself and this overnight vicious shortcovering must have been painful for some. Very clearly, the overnight price action is so characteristic of a short squeeze and needless to say, its objective was to flush out the loads of buy stop orders.
I don't get it right all the time but this round has been really fulfilling, in a way vindicated. Especially when I anticipated this move since last week and expressed in "Watch EURAUD....", 4 Jul Thu. Clueless as I may have sounded on Tuesday, its often a turning point, laced with uncertainties. For those who were patient with me, "Hardier than expected...", 10 Jul yesterday, would have gotten you out of trouble or helped you make some money.
So is this the end of the USD rally? I beg to differ and feel that this blip is but a correction within a bullish USD trend, which have another wave to go (see 10 Jul and today's charts).

Europe order book:
Stop loss: 1.3000, 1.3210 and 1.3250
Limit: 1.3130-50

Primary trend: Bullish
Intermediate trend: Bearish for 1.24
Minor trend: Bearish for 1.2750/2800

Technically, this is a very uncommon move as E$ breached more than 2 standard deviations in the overnight rally based on time and price (for the shorter intraday technical readings). Shorter intraday indicators are in o/s level now, whereas the longer intraday ones are close to o/b condition. At this moment, intraday momentum indicator signals are inconclusive due to this unusual price action. From here, I expect 1.3080/3100 (1.3150/80 stronger resistance) to cap any rebound and market to drift back towards 1.2900/30 today.
E$ Daily chart - 1.3200 objective met!!


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