Friday, 26 July 2013

Shaken but not out!

Overnight, E$ defied gravity and continued its relentless grind higher soaking up heavy supply and triggering buy stops. The price action was unusual as I witnessed the rally last night. Despite the dark cloud cover candlestick pattern, E$ replied with a very potent turnaround with the daily range totally engulfing the day before (remember, no certainty?). For this, I must admit I was not mentally prepared for and will take a step back, let the market unfold a little further before I commit to a minor trend view.
Having said that, I still maintain that E$ remains susceptible around these levels for a very quick snap back, which has a higher probability of materializing in August.

Europe order book:
Stop loss: 1.3165/50 and 1.3305
Limit: 1.3165/50, 1.3300, 1.3320/25 and 1.3340/50

Primary trend: Bullish
Intermediate trend: Bearish for 1.2800/50 (to be reviewed if 1.3416 breached)
Minor trend: Mixed

Technically, intraday and daily indicators are all in o/b levels. However, I receive mixed signals on the intraday momentum indicator at this point in time (1.3275) with some showing further upside momentum but contradicted by a bearish divergence signal. This should hold us back from turning overly bullish in case the E$ went for another spurt towards the trendline resistances (1.3340/70) tonight.
For the diehards, I recommend a scaled down notional for a speculative sell at 1.2330 with a stop above 1.3416 for a take profit at 1.3230. Its Friday, remember your trailing profit stop!

E$ Daily chart - Trendline resistance...

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